Palantir Earnings Call on February 3rd

This week was a soap opera in the markets. The whole fiasco with DeepSeek was interesting to unfold as it looks like there may have been some dishonesty on their part. Turns out yet another Chinese company (this one operated by a Chinese Hedge Fund) may have been lying to the Western media. Shocking, right? They stated their LLM cost only $6 million to develop without the use of Nvidia chips, and those claims have been disputed by American and Chinese stock analysts throughout the week. I personally am wondering if the hedge fund that created DeepSeek shorted NVDA last week prior to releasing this "news". But anyways, now the U.S. Commerce Department is looking into the matter, so some clarity will arise. 

But this DeepSeek story relates to my favorite stock, Palantir: 

The market's reaction to DeepSeek was, in my opinion, an excessive overreaction. For the past two years, Palantir's management has consistently maintained that Large Language Models (LLMs) like ChatGPT or DeepSeek would inevitably become commoditized. They assert that the real value in AI does not reside in the LLMs themselves but rather in the sophisticated software that effectively integrates these models with specific business data and workflows. This domain is precisely where Palantir excels, and their insights have proven to be spot-on. At this juncture, whether DeepSeek cost $6 million or not is immaterial, given the proliferation of available LLMs. Instead, the focus should rightly remain on Palantir's profound capabilities in this space.

Q4 Earnings Call 

Palantir Technologies is gearing up for its eagerly anticipated earnings call on Monday, February 3rd, after the market closes. The potential outcomes have sparked significant interest, with projections suggesting that stellar results could propel the stock to $100 or more, while a miss might see it drop to $60, presenting a potential buying opportunity.

In the buildup to this earnings call, there has been vigorous debate among Wall Street analysts on prominent financial networks like CNBC and Bloomberg, with many challenging Palantir's high valuation. Despite these "expert" opinions, I maintain a strong conviction in Palantir's valuation and its long-term prospects.

Regarding the upcoming earnings, I anticipate a healthy beat from PLTR, although this alone may not satisfy Wall Street's expectations. For the stock to truly surge in Monday's after-hours trading, the growth rate needs to be exceptionally high. It's widely acknowledged that the company is on an upward trajectory, but only aggressive growth figures will push the stock into triple digits this month. Whether this will occur remains to be seen. However, even if we witness slower growth and a subsequent sell-off, my stance remains bullish in the long term. 

They are on the brink of a transformative phase in its operational and strategic development, aiming to redefine its role within the tech industry over the next five years. Here's a closer look at the company's future vision, its recent advancements, and the strategic shifts that are setting the stage for its next phase of growth:

Future Vision

Palantir is set to evolve significantly over the next five years, transitioning from being a provider of standalone digital twins to a platform that connects these into an interconnected network. This will enable seamless transactions across and along supply chains, unlocking exponential operating leverage and dramatically improving financial outcomes.

This year marked a pivotal advancement with the introduction of Warp Speed in Q2 2024. This new offering—an operating system designed to enhance manufacturing efficiency—represents the first repeatable and scalable computing framework from Palantir. It enables customers to optimize their manufacturing processes across various industries. Dubbed “valuable compute,” this customized, purpose-built computation is tailored to customer needs and marks a significant shift in how computing power is utilized across sectors.

As Palantir builds out its network of ontologies, the deployment of Warp Speed exemplifies a strategic step towards creating a true network-centric approach. Palantir’s ability to deliver instances of valuable compute will boost the efficiency of any activity its customers engage in, potentially making Palantir's offerings a baseline requirement for competitiveness in various industries, much like Excel’s dominance in finance.

The Cloud Ecosystem

Palantir's evolving strategy positions it at the top of the cloud ecosystem funnel, transforming the way companies approach cloud services. Businesses are likely to start with Palantir's valuable compute as a gateway, streamlining their access to broader cloud capabilities and bypassing traditional raw compute providers like Amazon and Google.

This strategic repositioning is anticipated to mirror Microsoft’s post-Windows strategy, focusing on facilitating transactions and interactions between interconnected ontologies. With these developments, Palantir is expected to grow into one of the world’s leading computing companies, potentially reaching a market cap in the multi-trillion-dollar range.

Why Palantir Stands

Palantir is often likened to an operating system for data and global decision-making, having firmly established itself in the realm of Automated Governance. The company has revolutionized data management within large organizations by transitioning from traditional assembly-line analytics to a more dynamic, integrative model. This shift not only enhances decision-making processes but also significantly reduces inefficiencies across the board.

Analyses suggest that Palantir's strategic approach could mirror the impressive growth trajectory of Salesforce in the 2010s, which notably optimized workflows and streamlined operations. However, Palantir's strategy extends beyond corporate realms to encompass governmental structures, amplifying its impact and suggesting a potential for even greater, more sustained growth in the long term. This ambitious scaling showcases Palantir's unique market position and underscores its capability to drive profound changes in data utilization and decision-making on a global scale.

Looking Ahead..

As we approach the earnings call, the financial community is keen to assess how Palantir's strategic initiatives and market expansion efforts are reflected in its financials. With its innovative data integration and AI application, Palantir is not merely improving its own growth prospects but is also redefining industry standards for technological advancement and strategic data utilization.

The ongoing discussions about Palantir's valuation and the optimism surrounding its future are grounded in its revolutionary approach to big data and decision-making support. This earnings call will be crucial for stakeholders to better understand Palantir's current achievements, but the guidance and growth figures should be a better of indicator of where things will go as posed to the Q4 financials. 

If you're interested in learning more about Palantir and their long term vision for the industry, check out this fresh interview with the CEO which aired yesterday. 

Did Chinese AI just Ruin America's Economy?

Hello investors,

This week produced shockwaves in the world of artificial intelligence all thanks to Chinese AI firm DeepSeek. 

Here's the Borex TL;DR on DeepSeek: 

• Chinese firm DeepSeek just created an open source AI model that outperforms ChatGPT, Meta's and Google's models
• The total cost to develop this was under $6 million USD
• DeepSeek's tokens are 97% cheaper than OpenAI's
• They did this without Nvidia chips (allegedly) as China has limited access to these cutting edge chips

This is a lot to unwind. To draw a parallel to real life, this is essentially a company releasing a phone on par with the latest and greatest iPhone, but selling it for $30 instead of $1000. It's a dramatic turn of events I was not expecting. 

Is DeepSeek a better AI model?

I'm a heavy ChatGPT user. I subscribe to ChatGPT Plus and use it to run and analyze financial models, diagnose problems, perform research, create powerpoint decks, draft emails, summarize documents, literally most tasks which I used to have to outsource. For the past 3 days I have been exclusively using  DeepSeek and... I'm impressed with it. 

But it's not just me, I'm reading that DeepSeek has rapidly become the preferred tool for researchers at respected institutions like Stanford and MIT, essentially becoming their model of choice virtually overnight. 

Artificial Analysis ran some benchmarking tests against other models, and... it was just as good as OpenAI's godtier, extremely expensive and limited o1 model. It outperformed every other OpenAI, Google, Meta, and Amazon AI model. Impressive. 

What's more, they're releasing it open-source so you even have the option (which OpenAI doesn't offer btw) of not using their API at all and running the model for "free" yourself. Essentially what they have done is reveal the "secret sauce" behind these LLM. 

Why are they doing this? Well apparently DeepSeek is the side project of one of China's top hedge funds. And well, if there's any stereotype on Wall Street that's mostly true, it's probably that Chinese finance guys are really good at math. So I'm sure they ran the numbers and still see opportunities to make money here somehow. Or maybe they can quantify the long term effects of the social impact here for China and see worth there.

Token Cost

Okay, on to the money side. You have to pay to use OpenAI models with tokens if you want to incorporate them into your business to perform tasks.  

A typical enterprise codebase might be 1 million lines of code, or roughly 4 million tokens. That would cost $60 with OpenAI versus just $2.20 with DeepSeek. At OpenAI's prices, doing daily security scans would cost $21,900 per year per codebase; with DeepSeek it's $803.

So if you're an OpenAI customer today you're obviously going to start asking yourself some questions, like "why exactly should I be paying 30x more for a worse product?". This is pretty transformational stuff, it fundamentally challenges the economics of the market. And it's great for China and bad for US tech giants. 

What does this mean for the markets?

DeepSeek reportedly developed their entire platform for less than $6 million (not billion), a stark contrast to Microsoft's $14 billion investment in OpenAI and the recent announcement by President Trump of a $500 billion AI initiative. This disparity raises questions about whether the costs of AI development are being overstated in the West, potentially inflating Nasdaq valuations.

This situation could pose a significant risk to U.S. equity markets, particularly given that DeepSeek's success was achieved without the use of Nvidia chips. Previously deemed essential for AI progress, the necessity of these chips was a key driver behind Nvidia's stock surge last year. The efficiency and cost-effectiveness of DeepSeek's model challenge the justification for the extensive capital expenditures currently flowing into the AI sector. 

Or does it?

The success of DeepSeek could potentially challenge U.S. dominance in technology, positioning China as a frontrunner in the global AI landscape.

However, there's room for skepticism regarding DeepSeek's claims. What if the company isn't being fully transparent about its operations? There's a possibility that DeepSeek might actually be using Nvidia chips, acquired through indirect means from a third-party country like Singapore. This scenario would question the validity of their reported low development costs and the supposed independence from established tech infrastructures, adding a layer of complexity to the narrative surrounding global AI development and its geopolitical implications.

If you're inclined to believe China's newfound innovation capabilities as demonstrated by DeepSeek, it might be wise to reconsider your investment strategy—perhaps by divesting from Nvidia and directing your funds into CQQQ, betting on China's ascendency in AI. However, if you harbor any doubts about the authenticity of these claims, a more prudent approach would be to wait out the initial flurry of reactions. Allow the situation to stabilize before making any significant changes to your QQQ-focused investment strategy.

For those interested in exploring this topic further, below is a CNBC video that delves into the matter, providing additional insights. Enjoy!

QQQ: The Easiest & Safest Investment for Wealth Building

Hello fellow investors,

Happy New Year! It has been a wild start to the year with a chunky pullback and volatility in full swing. For me, I personally enjoy the market drama and the opportunity to sit by screens all day and purchase stocks on sale... but that's not everybody's cup of tea. Some investors can't stomach this volatility and that's totally fine. The good news? There is still a fairly easy & safe way to invest and build wealth off of big tech without these wild swings.

How? With QQQ.

This is one of my favorite investment picks, and I've been a consistent buyer for over a decade. My enthusiasm for big tech remains as strong as ever, given that nearly every major technological breakthrough or innovative product seems to originate from the tech behemoths like Google, Apple, Amazon, Meta, Nvidia, and others.

So what exactly is QQQ?

QQQ is an exchange-traded fund (ETF) that primarily aims to track the performance of the Nasdaq-100 Index. This index includes 100 of the largest domestic and international non-financial companies listed on the Nasdaq Stock Market based on market capitalization. The ETF is managed by Invesco Capital Management and is popular for its exposure to large technology companies, making it a superb choice for investors looking to capitalize on the growth of the tech sector.

Here are the top 10 holdings of QQQ as of late 2024, which collectively make up a substantial portion of the ETF's total assets:

Apple Inc. (AAPL): 9.23%

Nvidia Corporation (NVDA): 7.88%

Microsoft Corporation (MSFT): 7.74%

Broadcom Inc. (AVGO): 6.31%

Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN): 5.63%

Tesla Inc. (TSLA): 4.86%

Meta Platforms Inc. (META): 4.85%

Alphabet Inc. Class A (GOOGL): 2.68%

Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST): 2.61%

Alphabet Inc. Class C (GOOG): 2.57%

These holdings reflect QQQ's heavy emphasis on technology and consumer services, showcasing its role as a tech-heavy fund. This composition makes QQQ an attractive option for investors looking to gain broad exposure to major technology firms and other high-growth sectors, such as consumer electronics and e-commerce, which are pivotal in today's (and tomorrow's) digital economy.

It's also worth mentioning that QQQ's composition is dynamically rebalanced every quarter. This ensures that rising studs in the tech sector, such as Palantir or MicroStrategy, are integrated into the ETF once they make significant waves on the Nasdaq—a recent adjustment influenced by the heat surrounding these companies exemplifies this process.

In essence, investing in QQQ is like having a stake in all the major tech giants by purchasing this one symbol. This diversification not only spreads out your risk but also aligns your portfolio with the pulse of technological innovation.

Why is QQQ worth investing in?

Its my strong opinion that tech firms continue to be attractive investment opportunities for three compelling reasons:

1. Innovation and Research & Development (R&D): Technology companies are at the forefront of innovation, consistently pushing the boundaries of what's possible. They invest heavily in research and development to create new products and improve existing ones, driving growth through technological advancements. This continual innovation cycle helps maintain their competitive edge and opens up new markets, from advancements in artificial intelligence and machine learning to breakthroughs in quantum computing and biotechnology. Let's face it, the big tech companies have the capital and the money that small firms don't. Even if there is some new tech breakthrough, if its developed by a small firm outside of big tech then it will likely be big tech that buy them up before you hear about it. 

2. Digital Transformation: The ongoing digital transformation across all sectors of the economy presents significant growth opportunities for tech companies. As more businesses and services move online—from cloud computing and digital payments to telehealth and remote work solutions—tech companies that provide these enabling technologies are poised to benefit. This trend is likely to accelerate, with technology becoming increasingly integral to operations in sectors like finance, healthcare, education, and manufacturing.

3. Global Reach and Scalability: Many tech firms operate on business models that allow them to scale rapidly and efficiently across global markets. With the internet and cloud-based services, a tech company can expand its reach without the substantial capital expenditures that traditional businesses might incur. This scalability not only boosts growth prospects but also allows tech companies to adapt quickly to global demands and changing market conditions. A lot of tech revolves around software. Once software is developed, selling it to customers is far easier to scale as it requires less effort to produce. It's one of the reasons I'm so bullish on PLTR, because its very easy for them to sell an already developed software to new clients. 

These factors collectively suggest that technology companies could continue to experience robust growth over the next decade, making them compelling candidates for investment.

How has QQQ performed historically?

Let's crunch some numbers on QQQ's performance over the last decade.

Think back to about 10 years ago when QQQ was priced at around $100 per share. Fast forward to today, and that price has skyrocketed to roughly $515 per share.

So, if you'd dropped $10,000 into QQQ 10 years back, you'd have picked up about 100 shares. Those 100 shares are now worth around $51,500. That’s a 400% increase—not bad, right?

If you're currently holding 100 shares of QQQ, valued at about $515 each, your stash is worth about $51,500. Wondering what the next 10 years might look like? If QQQ pulls off another 400% gain like it did in the last decade, you could be looking at an investment worth around $206,000. No guarantees, of course—it could go higher or it might dip. But if the past can teach us anything, it's that QQQ has some serious potential.

Keep in mind, though, that past performance doesn’t always predict the future. There will be pullbacks and panic on the market from time to time. But overall, I trust in the general tech sector to always bounce back and reach new highs. 

Why do I think QQQ is fairly safe?

First and foremost, QQQ's focus on the Nasdaq-100—a collection of some of the largest and most innovative companies in the world—provides a level of security. These companies are not only leaders in their fields but also have substantial financial resources, making them more resilient to economic downturns compared to smaller entities.

Additionally, the tech sector's robust growth trajectory helps cushion against market volatility. Despite occasional downturns, technology as a sector has shown remarkable resilience and an ability to outperform the broader market over the long term. The consistent demand for technological advancements and digital services provides a steady stream of revenue that supports these companies through various market conditions.

Lastly, the diversification within the tech giants included in QQQ means you're not putting all your eggs in one basket. While it's true that QQQ is tech-heavy, it also includes companies from various sub-sectors within technology, like cloud computing, artificial intelligence, digital payments, and more. This diversification helps mitigate the risk if one particular area faces challenges.

In summary, the combination of being invested in leading companies, the inherent growth potential of the tech sector, and the diversification across different technology domains makes QQQ a fairly safe bet for those looking to invest in technology without the extreme volatility that can come with individual tech stocks. It's a cornerstone in my portfolio, offering both the excitement of tech and the stability of established, high-performing companies. This balance is why I continue to trust and recommend QQQ as a sound investment vehicle.

Closing Thoughts

Alright. QQQ offers a compelling alternative to traditional saving and investment methods, especially when you consider the types of returns it has generated over the past decade. Keeping your money in a bank or investing in real estate simply wouldn't yield anywhere near the same level of return. Do you know anybody that bought a house in 2015 for $100,000, did nothing for 10 years then sold it for $500,000? I doubt it. 

Furthermore, as I have have previously written, with governments around the world continuing to print money, leading to currency debasement, inflation becomes a tangible threat to the purchasing power of our savings. In such an environment, QQQ stands out as a strategic tool to safeguard against inflation and help maintain the value of our investments. By focusing on high-growth technology companies that are often less affected by inflationary pressures than more traditional industries, QQQ provides a robust platform for growth and a hedge against the erosion of value caused by global financial policies.

So for those looking to both protect and grow their wealth in uncertain times, QQQ represents not just an investment in some of the most dynamic companies on the planet, but also an investment in the future of technology and innovation. 

Fin.

2025 Predictions

Hello fellow investors,

Another year has flown by (way too fast) so its time to stick to tradition and make some fun market predictions for 2025. My last few annual predictions aged quite well (PLTR), earning remarkable 80% returns annually for each (yes, I said each) year so I'm hoping for the same in 2025. 

But as we look ahead to 2025, the stock market landscape presents an odd amount of optimism, and that makes me cautious. The last two years were quite incredible for most investors, marking two consecutive bullish years with an impressive 25% growth on the S&P500. 

However, the question on everyone’s mind is: can this upward trajectory continue? While enthusiasm remains high, I anticipate a slower, much more tempered pace in 2025, with the S&P 500 likely to see a maximum growth of just 5% by year’s end.

Prediction 1: S&P500 will see modest 5% growth by Year End 2025, larger growth will be concentrated to small amount of big tech stocks and bitcoin

So why only 5%? Well lets take a look at a few things.

In the political arena, Orange man is coming back and as he did before, he will  focus on the stock market as a key measure of success, amplifying market sentiment and policy-driven narratives. So early 2025, we can expect enthusiasm and growth, particularly in January, driven by renewed investor confidence. Investors did give him the nickname Donald Pump for a reason. 

Check out this graph below. I think its one of the most intriguing factors influencing 2025, the deployment of $7 trillion in cash still sitting on the sidelines. Right now this cash is sitting in Money Market funds, but people will get greedy as they tend to do and throw this cash back in market as they seek higher returns with lowering interest rates. That should raise the markets at a minimum. 

  

However, I'm predicting a significant cyclical pullback is likely to unfold in March or so, testing the resilience of the markets. The catalyst? Could be China, could be tariffs, but I think it will be inflation sneaking back in and spooking the markets. 

But overall with interest rates gradually dropping or even staying at current levels, this capital on the sidelines is poised to re-enter the market. The big question is: where will this influx of funds flow, and how will it shape the sectors and stocks of tomorrow?

I'm betting on bitcoin and big tech more than general S&P500. 

Prediction 2: Bitcoin will be volatile as always, but it will reach 140k at some point, MSTR will hit $800 per share

I wrote about currency debasement recently so I'm not going to repeat my bull case scenario for bitcoin. But money on the side entering the markets will send bitcoin to a high of $140k before it retreats probably down to the $80-90k range. This in turn will send MSTR flying to a high of $800 in 2025, but it will come back down as well. Still I will keep adding shares of MSTR on dips and will look to sell a larger portion once it reaches my target of $800. MSTR might dip down below $300 but overall it will be a volatile ride for both BTC and MSTR.

Other crypto might perform well but I will stay away from all other coins as I find the majority of them to be absolutely repulsive. One thing I am interested in is a potential Ripple ETF, if this comes out in 2025 (I'm predicting it does), then it maybe something I invest in. But I'll save that for a different post. 

The main drivers behind bitcoin's growth will be governments purchasing more coins in 2025 as strategic reserves. The Bitcoin Act of 2024 is being presented to Congress, which states the US Department of Treasury must purchase one million bitcoins over the next 5 years. Will this bill pass? Maybe. Maybe not. But if it does expect every other major treasury in the world to follow. In fact there's already talks in Germany, China, Japan and the Netherlands for governments to start setting up bitcoin reserves. I expect more corporates will purchase bitcoin as well. 

Alright on to PLTR, my (and hopefully your) favorite future trillion dollar company. 

Prediction 3: Palantir will grow due to Software Phase of  AI Revolution

This year was far too good for Palantir. I say far too good as a lot of my former work colleagues reached out to me (after years) to ask me if they would still buy PLTR at these prices. I told them what I tell everybody:

"When it was $8 a share, I told you to buy it since it was going to $100. Now that its $70, does that change that its going to go to $100?"

This year’s growth, driven by outstanding commercial performance, has been nothing short of phenomenal. If you’ve been following my posts, I hope you snagged as many shares as I did when they were trading below $10—and are now well on your way to planning an early retirement. But don’t cash out just yet—there’s still more to come.

As we witness the ongoing AI revolution, it's becoming clear that key players in hardware, software, and data management are positioned for even more growth. 2024's focus was on AI hardware. And on the hardware front, NVIDIA had a parabolic 2024 due to their chips powering the burgeoning AI industry. From training massive AI models to enabling advanced applications, NVIDIA's GPUs are still indispensable in the AI ecosystem. 

But I think AI is transitioning into the software phase of its revolution, and Palantir is uniquely positioned to thrive during this period. Over the next four years, Palantir's commercial and government business is expected to experience substantial growth.

Palantir's AI Platform (AIP) is set to attract more corporate clients as organizations seek tools to derive actionable insights from their vast data troves. 

Ontology, or the ability to organize and extract value from data, is critical in a world drowning in information. Palantir still remains the only firm capable of delivering this at scale, providing it with a strong competitive edge.

On the government side of things, political ties may further bolster Palantir's business here. The Trump administration has recently brought in individuals with strong connections to PLTR

• Jacob Helberg, appointed as Undersecretary of State, is a senior advisor at Palantir
• Peter Thiel, Palantir’s co-founder, maintains close relationships with influential figures such as Vice President Vance and Elon Musk, who is a trusted.... advisor(?) and confidant to President Trump
• David Sacks, the new AI Czar and a close associate of Thiel, has publicly acknowledged Palantir’s unique AI moat

Furthermore, Palantir’s technology could be instrumental in Trump's promised government cost-cutting efforts. I predict Elon and his Department of Government Efficiency will leverage Palantir's AIP platform to "streamline operations and reduce spending"—professional way of saying they will slash jobs and costs. It might be bad for the market and short term labor market (if DOGE fires too many government employees) but it could provide a good boost to PLTR stock. 

So, I'm still bullish and see PLTR's growth (and stock price) continuing in 2025. Will it have the type of growth NVIDIA had in 2024? Probably not, but it will still outperform the market. 

Now talking about AI, software and Elon, I have to bring up TSLA. 

Did you know that last year, the Tesla Model Y was the best selling car in the world? 

Impressive, right? Tesla’s growth prospects remain as electrifying (pun intended) as ever. While it continues to dominate the EV market—with the highly anticipated Model Q on the horizon—Tesla’s true strength lies in its innovation beyond vehicles. Its cutting-edge software (which is enhanced by ontology and AI), expanding charging infrastructure, and advancements in autonomous driving, including the game-changing Robo-taxis, position the company for sustained, long-term success.

With these developments, I'm expecting TSLA to reach a stock price of $600 by the end of 2025.

Are there any other parts of the tech sector that are poised to outperform the market in 2025? I think so. 

Prediction 4: Cybersecurity & Quantum Computing stocks will take off

The Western world continues to face relentless cyberattacks from Russian hackers. This issue feels especially personal, as Poland ranks as the most targeted country in the world for cyberattacks on a per capita basis. 

In 2025, companies of all sizes will need to prioritize cybersecurity like never before. I anticipate a record level of investment in this critical area, driving cybersecurity stocks to outperform the broader market. Among the options available, I believe the First Trust NASDAQ Cybersecurity ETF (CIBR) stands out as the best choice right now.

Over the past five years, CIBR has been the top-performing U.S.-based cybersecurity ETF, delivering an impressive annualized return of approximately 18.16%. With the increasing focus on cybersecurity, I expect this strong performance to continue in 2025, making CIBR a compelling investment opportunity.

Another area I expect to see significant growth in the market is quantum computing. Google recently made headlines for advancements in its quest to achieve quantum supremacy, a milestone that could revolutionize technology as we know it. 

Quantum computing fundamentally changes how problems are solved by leveraging quantum mechanics. Unlike traditional computers, which process information in binary (0s and 1s), quantum computers use qubits that can exist in multiple states simultaneously. This allows them to perform complex calculations at speeds unimaginable for classical systems, unlocking potential in areas like cryptography, drug discovery, and artificial intelligence.

While the field is still in its infancy, I anticipate quantum computing to become a major buzzword in 2025. For investors, it’s important to recognize that the breakthrough could come from anywhere. If it's an American or European firm, there’s a strong chance the company will be listed on the Nasdaq, making ETFs like QQQ a solid way to gain exposure.  

However, if a Chinese or BRICS nation company leads the charge, the geopolitical implications could be severe, shifting the balance of technological power. In that scenario, we might be f*cked. Either way, keeping a close eye on quantum computing developments is crucial for staying ahead of the curve in investing. 

Did you get all that?

So the markets in 2025 presents a landscape which should make investors cautious and strategic in their moves. 

While we might only see modest gains in the S&P 500, there’s real potential to score big in areas like big tech, Bitcoin, and growing sectors like cybersecurity and quantum computing. Making the right moves will be crucial to beating the market. 

Wishing you all a strategic and successful year—Good Luck, Merry Christmas and have a fantastic New Year!

Conviction, Patience, and Discipline

Obviously since this a investing site, I shouldn't have to stress the importance of money and investing too much here. But sometimes I feel like its important to journal your current thoughts so you can look back at them one day and reflect on the headspace you were in. I cannot stress enough that investing is not only a pathway to wealth; it is a discipline, a mindset, and a tool for creating a life that you want to live. 

But a lot of people don't do well, they make poor decisions that are based on emotion and end up losing too much or being a bag holder. Trust, we've all had losers on our journey to success, that's how you build experience. To really succeed in investing, one must understand its importance, master the psychology behind it with a solid plan, and prepare for what the future might bring. So here are my tips and suggestions to help you master this trade. 

Building Wealth: The Key to Freedom

Wealth is not an end in itself but a means to achieve freedom. Freedom to make choices, freedom to live without financial anxiety, and freedom to focus on what truly matters. 

Contrary to popular belief, luck plays a minimal role in wealth creation. Notice I said wealth creation, if you were born to the millionaire parents in Manhattan, Monaco or Zurich, then you are likely pretty damn lucky on the financial front so congratulations. But for the rest of us who don't come from generational wealth, we can't count on luck to get wealthy. We need to do what works effectively. And the easiest and most reliable way to build wealth is by building equity. Equity represents ownership, and ownership means participation in value creation. Whether it’s owning shares in a company or starting your own business, building equity is foundational to sustainable wealth. But there's plenty of material out there on how to start a business. People go to school specifically for business management or entrepreneurship, much less go to school for portfolio management or equity investing. But that's okay because it is a pretty simple formula. 

What does it truly mean to own shares in a public company? Put simply, it means you are a part-owner of that business. Just as the restaurant down the street has an owner, these large corporations also have owners—you and other shareholders. The more shares you own, the greater your stake in the company's success. As the company thrives financially, so does your wealth, reflecting your share of its growth and profitability. For this reason, I tend to avoid investing in small, obscure firms whose business models I don't fully understand. Owning shares is about more than just potential profit—it's about aligning with companies you believe in and comprehend.

Invest in What You Believe In

Yes, it sounds pretty cheesy but I have found time and time again that this is true. One of the simplest yet most profound investing strategies is to put your money into what resonates with you. 

For example:

Love drinking Coca-Cola daily? Buy shares of Coca-Cola.

Can’t stop raving about your Tesla Model 3? Consider investing in TSLA stock.

Appreciate the innovation behind your iPhone or MacBook? Invest in AAPL.

When you invest in things you understand and genuinely value, it becomes easier to stay committed, even during volatile market periods (which occur often). If you invest in only what you believe in, it creates conviction, and a lot of times I have noticed people have made millions because they had conviction and were sure of something. 

To make this personal, I have always been into tech innovation, its one of the reasons I invested so much in QQQ, PLTR or AAPL. When we had a huge market downturn in 2022, tech shares were ravaged. For me though, I was so convinced that the future would be tech heavy anyway that I invested a lot in QQQ and PLTR because I simply saw these reduced share prices as amazing buying opportunities. And they were. This obviously required a lot of discipline to buy when everybody else was selling. But discipline is a big part of it. Discipline and timing. 

Timing Your Purchases

With investing, timing is crucial. Timing your investments can make a significant difference. 

When is the worst time to buy? When you're caught up in "market FOMO"—the fear of missing out. This emotional reaction often leads to impulsive decisions, like buying a stock at an all-time high simply because everyone else is doing it. Chasing what's currently trending or most talked about is a risky game.

Take the GameStop frenzy as an example. At its peak, the stock hit an intraday high of $480—nearly 190 times its low of $2.57 just nine months earlier. During that time, random acquaintances were reaching out to me, asking if I was buying in. My response was simple: "When was the last time you went to a GameStop, or even played a video game?" Their lack of connection to the business highlighted a troubling trend—they were treating the stock market like a casino, not an investment tool.

As a result, many of them lost significant amounts of money. The stock market can be wildly irrational in the short term, driven by hype and speculation. However, over the long term, it tends to correct itself and rewards those who approach it with patience, discipline, and a focus on fundamentals.

So when is the best time to buy stocks or ETFs that you like? Red days. When markets dip, opportunities arise. Use these moments to buy assets at discounted prices. Red days come often when external factors like poor economic data, political pressure, or military conflicts spook the markets. That is when you buy. To take advantage of these opportunities, consider automating your investments with limit orders. A limit order allows you to set a predetermined price at which you want to buy a stock, ensuring disciplined buying without the need for constant monitoring.

Let me share a recent experience with you. I've been steadily accumulating shares of MicroStrategy (MSTR), driven by my belief in its potential to thrive as a Bitcoin treasury. This is an investment I plan to hold for at least a year, if not longer. That said, I’m fully aware of the high volatility associated with both MSTR and Bitcoin—prices can fluctuate wildly in the short term. Despite this, I remain confident and comfortable holding this stock as a long-term investment.

Last month, I noticed MSTR was trading at $475, an all time high for them. I decided that if it dropped 20% to around $380, I would buy it so I entered an limit order to purchase. Sure enough, a few days later, the market experienced a sell-off, and my limit order kicked in, automatically purchasing MSTR shares for me at $380. Within days, the stock rebounded to over $400, and I was pleased with the price I’d secured.

Has it dipped below $380 since? Yes. But I’m okay with that because I understand the stock's volatility. If it drops to $300, I’ll buy more without hesitation. Why? Because I have strong conviction that MSTR will be worth significantly more in a year.

This strategy works because I approach investing with conviction, patience, and discipline. Conviction keeps me focused on the long-term potential of my investments. Patience allows me to wait for the right buying opportunities, and discipline helps me stick to my plan during volatile times. That said, buying during red days requires emotional resilience. It’s not easy to buy when everyone else is selling. Self-doubt will creep in as you question your decision to go against the herd. But this contrarian approach—buying when others panic—is a proven strategy for many successful investors.

Does It Always Work? Of course not. No strategy is foolproof, and there are times when investments don’t pan out as expected (still waiting for AMD to bounce back). However, I’ve been surprised by how often this method has worked for me personally for stocks I am comfortable holding for a longer term. The key is to stay calm, make informed decisions, and capitalize on opportunities when emotions drive others to panic. Over time, this approach can turn market volatility into your greatest advantage.

Balancing Discipline and Enjoyment in Investing

Investing is a long-term game that demands patience and discipline, but it’s important to remember that life is meant to be lived. Financial freedom loses its meaning if you’re too focused on wealth-building to enjoy the present. Striking a balance between investing for your future and enjoying the moment is not only fulfilling but also sustainable.

I personally believe the balanced approach, 40 Days vs. 40 Years is good to follow. Its pretty simple. When you have an extra 10k to spend...

Spend Half Like You’ll Live for 40 Days 

Use half of that 10k to create meaningful experiences. Invest it in something that brings you joy—a vacation, a weekend getaway, a memorable dinner, something that you will remember when you're a wrinkly and old. These moments of happiness and relaxation recharge you, improve your mental health, and remind you why you’re working so hard in the first place.

Invest Half Like You’ll Live for 40 Years 

Allocate the other half toward securing your financial future. Consider investing in QQQ, TSLA, AAPL, or other stocks and ETFs that align with your long-term goals and growth strategy. Your future self will thank you. 

This approach will help you avoid burnout, enhance your perspectives, and just make your life more enjoyable. By embracing this mindset, you’re not just building wealth—you’re creating a life you love living. Your investments secure your future, while the experiences enrich your present. 

Preparing for the Uncertain Future

The world is in a constant state of change, and right now, much of the conversation revolves around artificial intelligence. AI is reshaping our future, offering immense opportunities while also sparking fear and uncertainty. Many roles in the corporate world are being redefined—or even replaced—by AI technologies.

What happens when driverless cars become the norm in Manhattan? What will happen to all the professional? Could robots eventually take over jobs as bartenders, cleaners, or landscapers? Will cashiers be required as this technology evolves? And as quantum computing advances, how might it revolutionize everyday life? These questions underscore the profound transformations on the horizon, challenging us to rethink the nature of work and the skills needed in this rapidly evolving landscape.

This should serve as motivation to research and invest more than ever. Traditionally, building wealth started with knowledge—and while knowledge is still the most powerful asset you can own, its role has evolved. In a world where tools like ChatGPT and YouTube make information readily accessible, ignorance is no longer an excuse.

However, it's crucial to recognize that these tools primarily solve problems we already understand. The ability to adapt, innovate, and create remains uniquely human. ChatGPT might explain today’s accounting rules in detail, but can it develop entirely new frameworks for a field that doesn’t yet exist? Perhaps not.

One thing is certain: as new challenges and industries emerge, tech companies will be at the forefront, driving innovation and delivering transformative solutions. By staying informed and investing wisely, you can position yourself to benefit from these advancements. While it's impossible to predict exactly which companies will lead the charge, many of the frontrunners are—or will be—listed on the Nasdaq. A simple way to gain exposure to this wave of innovation is through ETFs like QQQ, which track top tech-driven companies shaping the future.

That’s exactly the approach I’ve taken and plan to continue. I focus on buying individual firms I have strong conviction in, like PLTR or MSTR, and ETFs like QQQ and ARKB, especially during market dips. This strategy not only aligns with my beliefs but also positions me for long-term growth.

Anyways, that's it for now. Happy Investing. Good luck.