Update on AAPL

Apple (ticker: AAPL) has had a weird 2021, we saw all time highs hit in late January at $143, followed by a pullback that's kept it trading in the $120-130 range (even though they hit some amazing quarterly figures). My gut is telling me that AAPL is ready to run and I'm still very aggressive here. 

The months of July and August have been particularly good for Apple stock in the past 10 years, that of course is not a guarantee of future growth but its a decent indicator, right? For AAPL, the big events of the year tend to be the new iPhone launch in September and the holiday shopping season. We are still about 3 months away from a new phone launch but excitement will eventually build. 

Also, heard a crazy stat regarding AAPL and their ROCE... Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

Apple has an ROCE of 39%. Ridiculous number that destroys the average of 6.1% earned by other companies in the industry. Impressive. 

$170 by year end. Leverage up. 

What to Expect in June

Historically, June is one of the worst months for the stock market in history. However the last 4 years have seen us end June on a positive note. 

A couple weeks ago I posted my prediction that we would see a massive return to the Nasdaq by late May and we have seen a small rip leading us into June. If we are going to test our April tech highs anytime soon, this would be the time. I think the next week or so will be choppy, but on the upward trend. I'm positioning my TQQQ swings towards a record Nasdaq high by late June. An ambitious call but I feel it in my gut. 

Let's see what happens. Good luck. 

Inflation and this market

Inflation seems to be a concern nowadays. I recently read that 77% of Americans polled fear rising inflation due to recent Fed policy and the massive printing of money that has taken place with the stimmies. President Biden seems to be prepping another round or two of stimulus and infrastructure spending as well. With all this money being printed, it really shouldn't surprise anyone that many are starting to fear (panic) inflation. 

Going back the last 15-20 years when I started following the markets, I remember 2005 was the first year of noticeable inflation "panic" (pre-2008 banking crisis of course). The year 2005 showed us relatively high inflation which the federal gov't presented at 3.39%. That was the official figure, if you're old enough you may remember that 2005 gave us massive inflation due to Hurricane Katrina and a huge rise in oil and gas prices. Oddly, the 3.39% doesn't seem that bad but we did see gas prices surge from 2.00 to 3.00 a gallon. Many economists don't agree or trust the federal government's official numbers and therefore calculate their own figures. One of those economists is Walter Williams of Shadowstats and his published inflation numbers tend to seem a bit more accurate (for 2005 his method pointed to 8% inflation). 

Now in 2005, the Dow finished negative at about -1% even though we had very high inflation. Its still widely believed that stocks are still a good hedge against inflation because, in theory, a company’s revenue and earnings should grow at the same rate as inflation. But history shows this isn't always the case. 

Regardless, inflation fears will probably cause people to flee cash and get into other assets, whether its the stock market, bitcoin, or real estate. I'm betting on the fed's planned inflation of causing at least some pump cycles into the Dow and Nasdaq in 2021. I think inflation could be okay for this market, but if we get a case of stagflation (high inflation combined with high unemployment) in the next year, then gold will be the play for me. We'll see. 

2021 Q1 Thoughts

Today is the last Friday of this Q1 and wow, it's been an eventful quarter. The nice rips we had in January and February, followed by the madness that followed with Gamestop (stay away) and all the other meme stocks was wild. We saw a massive tech pullback in mid February that really didn't bottom until March 8th and that had me sorta worried, it probably humbled a lot of new investors... they learned stonks don't always just go up. 

Fortunately for me I had some nice day trades & weekly swings of TQQQ, SQQQ, and TSLA this quarter which gave me some meaty realized gains and helped me reinvest in some long term positions I like.

But unfortunately, Q1 as a whole has not been great though for me. After an amazing 2020 which saw my rate of return at 65% (an annual return I didn't think I would ever achieve), I am down 8% since the year started on my entire portfolio due to the tech pullback and my failure to predict the bottom.... whoops.  

That's all in the past now.. the question is where are we headed. Historically, September and February have always been known as awful months, these last 2 were no exception so I guess the market forces are still somewhat intact. If the past is any indicator of the future then it should be pointed out that April historically has always been the best month for the market. I expect more kangaroo market movement in Q2 where we rip maybe even 10% in April followed by a 5% pullback in May (sell in May and go away). In the meantime I am still bullish on the Nasdaq and expect tech to recover sooner than later back to our early February highs. 

If Biden's plan for vaccines works out, we might even see a return to somewhat normalcy shortly. Would be nice, I can't wait to put those f_cking masks away in a drawer and never see them again 😎 

PRNT: 3D Printing ETF to pay for my 3D home?

PRNT tracks a tiered, equal-weighted index composed of stocks that are directly involved in 3D printing and 3D printing-related businesses.

I recently saw a video about 3D printed houses and although I've known of this technology's capabilities for a while, I finally saw a house go up and be sold on CNBC. This might be a thing... houses in the US are generally of inferior quality made from plywood and cheap plastic siding. 3D printed homes made from concrete (or a concrete/recycled plastic mix) would be way cheaper and quicker to put up and might solve the looming housing crisis in this country. 

It might also send the price of real estate way down BUT the companies who build these 3D homes would become pretty rich. Imagine buying a home plan online on Amazon or Zillow with custom finishes and a week later its built and ready for you. Pretty incredible but feasible now with this technology. Check out the impressive video below...

3D Print House Video

Now onto the ETF... as of right now there isn't a publicly traded company that builds these 3D homes. But one day there will be, and when it is... it will be incorporated into this ETF. Who knows maybe there will be a dozen companies who do this, but regardless this ETF is an investment into the idea and the tech for now.

I bought this recently at $37.68 (currently at $37.85). This is a long term hold for me.