My Latest Pick: An AI Company with a Bright Future $NBIS

Hello fellow investors.

How's the market treating you so far in 2025? 

Well, the S&P500 is still negative for the year, but it looks like Trump maybe easing up on tariffs, so that may bring us into positive territory soon. We'll see. 

But if you've been following along here and investing like I have, you are likely doing far better than 95% of investors out there, even in a rough year like this. My personal YTD return is over 20%, I am VERY proud of this specifically in a year where everybody has been struggling and losing money. 

The best hedge funds in Manhattan tend to unofficially promise returns between 10-20% in a year, so for me to consistently beat them puts a huge grin on my face. 

In the last year, I am up over 100% in my portfolio. I spend a lot of time reading market news, researching companies, and devote a lot of time to this. But I genuinely love doing this and it doesn't even feel like work to me, so I am very happy to be at least rewarded financially for all of this. 

Now, that being said a lot of this is due to my high conviction in PLTR which I have been promoting since 2021 here, but my very recent pick, HIMS has also taken off like I expected. 

So naturally, some of you are already asking me what's next. I've been working on this one for a while, but here is my latest investment: 

It’s called Nebius, ticker symbol $NBIS, and it just might be the best kept secret in AI.

So What Is Nebius?

$NBIS is a next-gen cloud provider. Not just your typical storage and compute shop either. Nebius builds highly specialized AI infrastructure, offers developer tools, and runs one of the most impressive hardware-software stacks I’ve seen outside of hyperscalers. Think AWS and Azure, but streamlined for AI workloads and far more cost efficient.

The company is founder-led. It carries no debt, holds 2.4 billion dollars in cash, and is quietly building a monster. They own three high-potential subsidiaries and a meaningful stake in ClickHouse. And somehow, they’re still trading at just a 6.6 billion dollar valuation.

The core business alone could 4x or more from here. And that’s before even accounting for the other units.

The Big Picture

Nebius is gunning for dominance in the AI infrastructure race. The total addressable market for AI cloud is expected to grow at a 35 percent CAGR through 2030. Everyone wants compute power, and Nebius is offering some of the most cost-effective, high-performance solutions in the game.

They operate two key platforms:

• Nebius AI Cloud — optimized for AI training and inference

• Nebius AI Studio — a platform for researchers and developers to fine-tune, test, and deploy models

And now they’ve introduced TractoAI, a serverless platform that makes deploying AI workloads even easier, priced by usage instead of cluster time.

This isn't just a "cool tech" company. This is an extremely well-funded, engineering-heavy operator that designs its own servers, racks, and even motherboards. They run world-class data centers in Finland, the US, Paris, and Iceland. Their Finland site ranks among the top 20 supercomputers globally.

Let that sink in.

Why It Stands Out

A few things make Nebius unique:

• They’re a preferred Nvidia partner, meaning they get early access to top GPUs like Blackwell. That’s a massive edge in the AI compute wars.

• Their infrastructure is 20 to 25 percent cheaper to operate compared to others.

• They’ve got over 15 years of experience in server optimization.

• They’re expanding hard. By the end of 2025, Nebius expects to have 100 megawatts of capacity in the US and over 400 megawatts globally.

Let’s talk about scale for a second. At full capacity, their Finland data center alone could generate 1 billion dollars in annual recurring revenue. Add Missouri, Iceland, and Paris, and you get a path to 2.5 billion dollars ARR by mid-2026.

Apply even a modest 9 times ARR valuation, and that core business alone could be worth 22.5 billion dollars.

But that’s just part one.

Now Enter the Subsidiaries

Avride — The Sleeper in Autonomy

I was shocked this company wasn’t getting more attention.

Avride is Nebius' autonomous vehicle arm. Think robotaxis and delivery robots. They were the first to launch robotaxis in Europe and have already driven 22 million kilometers. That’s more than Cruise, Zoox, or Motional in some cases. Zero accidents.

They’re already operating in Moscow and testing in the US and South Korea. Starting this year, they’ll be running paid rides in Dallas through Uber. They’ve partnered with Hyundai to move toward full autonomy.

This is serious. Cruise raised money at a 30 billion dollar valuation. Zoox sits around 6 billion. Motional, which hasn’t even tested highway driving, was last valued at over 4 billion. Avride is at least on par,  or maybe even further ahead.

They also have autonomous delivery bots already deployed in the US, UAE, and Korea. Over 200,000 deliveries completed. Uber Eats integration. They expect to scale to 1,000 units by the end of the year.

Serve Robotics, which is doing something similar, is valued at 500 million with half the deployment. So conservatively, the delivery division alone should be worth a few hundred million. The robotaxi unit? Could be 6 to 10 billion by itself once it scales.

Toloka — Data Is the New Oil

Toloka is one of the world’s top AI data labeling platforms. Clients include Microsoft, AMD, Amazon, and more.

They’ve evolved from basic crowdsourcing to offering high-quality, targeted data for training large language models. This is one of the biggest bottlenecks in AI development right now, and Toloka is well positioned to dominate.

2024 revenue is projected at 60 million dollars, growing at over 40 percent annually. That puts 2030 revenue at around 322 million. At just 5 times sales, you’re looking at a 1.6 billion dollar valuation.

Again, that’s conservative.

TripleTen — Educating the AI Workforce

TripleTen is a fast-growing online bootcamp focused on AI and software training. Over 1,000 students enroll monthly, and they’ve recently expanded into B2B training for companies looking to reskill employees in AI.

They expect 50 million dollars in revenue by 2025 and are growing rapidly. The educational tech market is projected to grow at over 26 percent annually. If TripleTen hits 160 million dollars in revenue by 2030 and trades at 2 times sales (like Coursera), that’s another 320 million dollars in value.

ClickHouse Stake

Nebius owns 28 percent of ClickHouse, an open-source columnar database built for fast analytical queries. It’s used by giants like Microsoft, Spotify, Lyft, Block, Meta, and more.

ClickHouse was valued at 2 billion dollars in 2021. Since then, it’s only expanded. That makes Nebius’ stake worth around 560 million dollars, minimum.

Valuation Summary

So what do we have here?

• Core cloud business could be worth 22 to 27 billion by 2026 to 2028

• Avride could reach 6 to 10 billion in value

• Toloka could be worth 1.6 billion by 2030

• TripleTen around 320 million

• ClickHouse stake valued around 560 million

And all of that... is bundled into a company that today is valued at just 6 billion dollars.

Yes, There Will Be Dilution

Let’s be real. The cloud business is CapEx intensive. Avride will need funding. Nebius raised 700 million in December and has 235 million shares outstanding, plus 126 million shares held in treasury for incentive plans and future financing.

Even if total dilution reaches 53 percent (I think that’s the ceiling), the upside is still massive.

Where This Could Go

I believe $NBIS could be worth 10 billion dollars by the end of this year. They’re expected to hit 750 million dollars in ARR and are on track to break even on adjusted EBITDA.

By 2026? The company could conservatively be worth 35 to 40 billion.

By 2030? I wouldn’t be surprised to see a 50 billion dollar valuation, maybe more, depending on how AI compute demand evolves and how Avride scales.

Even if you assume full dilution, you’re still looking at a 5 to 10x return over five to seven years.

At sub $30, I find this to be a bargain. I think this can reach $50 within this calendar year. 

Final Thoughts

$NBIS is my highest conviction pick right now after PLTR & HIMS. 

It’s got strong fundamentals, massive growth, an unbeatable TAM, and one of the most talented engineering teams in AI. They’re building everything from the ground up, solving multiple bottlenecks in AI: compute, data, and talent all under one umbrella.

This is the kind of company that becomes obvious only in hindsight. But I’m not waiting for hindsight.  

We'll see. 

PLTR & HIMS Deliver Strong Q1 2025 Results

Both Palantir Technologies (PLTR) and Hims & Hers Health (HIMS) reported their Q1 2025 earnings on Monday after hours, and both showed signs of rapid, and impressive growth. 

However, the market’s reaction (especially to Palantir) suggests investors may be weighing more than just numbers with today's complex market. 

PLTR: Great, But Not “Stellar”? Market Reacts with a Pullback

Palantir delivered VERY strong results:

• Revenue: $884M (+39% YoY)

• Net Income Margin: 24% (profitable for the 7th consecutive quarter)

• U.S. Commercial Revenue: $255M (on a $1B run rate)

• FY 2025 Guidance: $3.89B to $3.902B (vs. consensus of $3.74B)

• Rule of 40: 83

Despite these metrics, the stock dropped more than 12% after hours.

This may seem confusing to retail investors, but it reveals something deeper: expectations were sky-high. With CEO Alex Karp declaring “Palantir is on fire,” many investors were expecting stellar numbers not just great ones.

Some skepticism may also stem from the slower growth in Palantir’s European commercial segment. Based on my experience, European companies tend to be slower in adopting new technologies, especially platforms as disruptive as Palantir’s. That friction may have led to a perception that international commercial acceleration could lag behind the U.S. and hinder future growth. 

Investors may also fear Palantir is approaching an era of decelerating growth. While I strongly disagree with that narrative, it could explain the reaction. Once a growth stock trades at a high multiple it’s held to extremely high standards. Any perceived slowdown triggers concerns about valuation. And thats what we have here. 

That said, I remain highly confident in Palantir’s long-term trajectory. Their AI and defense edge, combined with increasing commercial adoption in the U.S., will catapult them into $1 trillion territory in the next 2–3 years. If that happens, a stock price of $400 is within reach. 

It might seem far-fetched now, but remember just a few years ago, companies like Meta, Netflix, and Nvidia faced similar skepticism over their valuations. Those doubts didn’t age well. If anything, it highlights how often Wall Street’s institutional investors lag behind in understanding and valuing transformative technologies like PLTR. 

I am still bullish as ever especially with these guys, especially considering where I think they are headed with the FDEs. 

HIMS: More Than Just a GLP-1 Play

I recently posted that my latest high conviction investment was in fact HIMS. And wow was that an awesome pick. 

Hims & Hers delivered a standout quarter:

• Revenue: $586M (+111% YoY)

• Net Income: $49.5M

• Adjusted EBITDA: $91.1M (nearly tripled YoY)

• Subscribers: 2.4M (+38%)

• Average Revenue per Subscriber: $84 (+53%)

• FY 2025 Revenue Guidance: $2.3B to $2.4B

Much of the media coverage focused on the company's rollout of GLP-1 weight-loss drugs, including oral and injectable options. That’s a significant growth driver but there’s more to be excited about.

I’m extremely bullish on three key developments:

1. New COO from Amazon: Amazon alumni often bring exceptional operational discipline and scaling experience. This hire could unlock significant efficiencies and execution capabilities.

2. International Expansion Plans: With 2.4M subscribers largely concentrated in North America, HIMS has massive untapped potential overseas (Australia, New Zealand, UK seem like logical places for expansion).

3. Expanding Treatment Portfolio: They’re preparing to roll out targeted treatments for low testosterone in men and menopause in women. These are pressing social and health issues that affect millions and they fit naturally within the HIMS brand and telehealth infrastructure.

Combine these with their GLP-1 offerings, and HIMS is building a comprehensive wellness platform. Their growth is just getting started.

Two Winners, Two Market Reactions

Both companies are growing at an extraordinary pace, this is growth that legacy firms would envy. A 40% & 110% year-over-year revenue increase isn’t just impressive; it’s rare. I still remember in business school, we were taught that 10% annual growth was considered excellent. By that standard, what PLTR and HIMS are achieving is nothing short of phenomenal. 

But the initial remark response saw PLTR drop about 10% and HIMS pop almost 20%. 

The difference in market response speaks volumes about investor psychology:

• PLTR fell due to sky-high expectations, possible misinterpretations about European growth, and valuation concerns.

• HIMS surged due to positive surprises, operational momentum, and a clear vision for growth.

I put partial blame on this due to the market uncertainty we have with tariffs, if this news was given after a green day, I think both companies stocks would pump significantly more. But anyways, as long-term investors, we must look beyond the short-term price action. 

Fundamentals, leadership, and product-market fit will ultimately win, and both these companies are positioning themselves at the center of massive, long-term trends.

TLDR: Bullish on PLTR, bullish on HIMS. 

Be Like Poland

Well friends, if you’re Polish, you’ve got a little extra reason to hold your head high these days.

The top-performing country ETF in the world this year? Yep.. Poland.

Check this out: it's up a staggering 41% year-to-date. Sure, a big part of that surge comes from the strength of the Polish złoty, but still this is a serious flex in a year where most ETFs and indexes are swimming in red.

Not bad, Polska. Not bad at all.

In general the Polish market is doing very well compared to its counterparts. The WIG20, which is a capitalization-weighted stock market index of the twenty largest companies on the Warsaw Stock Exchange, is up almost 25% since January 1st. 

In the United States, the Dow Jones is down almost 7% on the year. 

The German DAX is up 9% YTD. 

The Eurozone Stock Index is up only 3%.

Japan is down 10% YTD. 

Palantir’s AI Engineers Are About to Change Everything

I was actually deep in the weeds working on an Apple piece. The idea was to figure out where the tech giant goes from here and whether they can bounce back from the recent AI missteps and that whole Vision Pro mess. It’s still a fascinating story. But then, on Good Friday, something massive dropped—news from Palantir that I just couldn’t ignore.

So I shelved the Apple deep dive for now, because what Palantir is doing might be one of the most important shifts in enterprise software we’ve seen in years. And I personally am ecstatic. 

It’s easy to underestimate a company like Palantir. For years, people called it a consulting firm in disguise. A black box. Too complex to scale. But now we’re entering a new chapter.. and it’s not just hype. It’s product evolution. It’s deployment acceleration. And it’s about to get wildly profitable.

At the center of it all? AI Forward Deployed Engineers, or FDEs.

Palantir’s traditional approach involved sending brilliant engineers (FDEs) to the client’s site to customize and implement its software. These weren’t just tech folks, they were the ones who made Palantir work in the real world. They took the raw software and shaped it into something meaningful for each business or government agency.

Now imagine if those engineers never had to sleep. Never took a break. Never hit capacity. That’s what AI FDEs are. And that is what Palantir CTO just confirmed on a call, that the company has built AI FDE's which are ready to be deployed. Check out the short clip below. 

These AI agents are trained to replicate what human FDEs do: understand client systems, tailor solutions, and bring Palantir’s platform to life. But they can do it at scale. On demand. With zero marginal cost.

Let’s break this down.

1. Scaling Without Hiring

Palantir used to grow in a linear fashion. More clients meant more engineers. More projects. More effort. AI FDEs flip that equation. Now, one AI model can serve countless clients at once. That means Palantir can grow without bloating headcount. The same team can serve 10 clients, then 100, then 1,000.

2. Margins Go Vertical

Deploying software used to be slow and expensive. Each client was a new lift. With AI FDEs, implementation becomes faster and cheaper. Less manual work. More automation. That feeds directly into gross margins. It’s like software-as-a-service on steroids.

3. More Value for Customers 

Here’s the best part. AI FDEs don’t just benefit Palantir, they make the product more powerful for customers too. You can now customize Palantir’s digital twins however you want. In hours, not months. That unlocks insane levels of operational efficiency for any business using the platform.

You want to automate your factory floor? Your logistics chain? Your compliance workflow? Done. AI FDEs help make it real without waiting for a consultant to fly in and code for weeks.

4. Accelerating the Flywheel 

The more Palantir productizes its software, the easier it is to sell, deploy, and scale. The easier it is to deploy, the more clients it attracts. And the more clients, the more data Palantir captures and learns from. This creates a flywheel effect and AI FDEs just made that wheel spin faster.

5. The Road to Autonomous Enterprises 

All of this is driving toward a bigger picture. Fully autonomous organizations. Companies that use digital twins and AI to run operations with minimal human involvement. We’re not talking about replacing everyone overnight, but it’s easy to see where this is going. AI handles support. AI handles logistics. AI handles decisions. And Palantir is the backbone.

AI FDEs are step two in that evolution. AIP was step one.

That’s why I believe this changes everything. Not just for Palantir’s customers. For Palantir itself. Higher margins. Greater reach. More predictable revenue. And a massive moat that gets harder to cross with every deployment.

If you’re a long-term investor, this is exactly the kind of inflection point you wait for. Quiet. Underappreciated. But deeply transformational.

And if you’re already holding the stock at lower levels, congratulations. The future looks pretty damn good from here. I keep saying that Palantir is the next Microsoft, and I am bullish as ever on their stock. 

Buy PLTR stock, your future self will thank you. 

Did Trump Ruin the Stock Market?

Regardless of your personal views on Donald Trump, the reality is that he will be serving as President of the United States for the next 3.5 years, and it’s clear he will remain a highly polarizing figure throughout his term.

His recent tariff announcements have sent shockwaves through the stock market, triggering a sharp sell-off, with signs pointing to further declines as we head into Monday’s session. While I had anticipated a broader market pullback in the first half of 2025, this downturn is proving to be more severe than expected.

I’ve always acknowledged the cyclical nature of markets, and following the exceptional gains we saw in 2023 and 2024 in the S&P 500, I believed 2025 would bring slower, more muted growth. Unfortunately, what we’re seeing now is far more abrupt and driven by geopolitical uncertainty rather than just market rotation.

So if you’ve been reading financial headlines lately, you might think the current market crash, down 20% from the February highs, is entirely Trump’s fault, right? All because of his tariffs?

Well, I’m not entirely convinced. Here’s why.

First off, I don’t believe this sell-off is solely the result of Trump’s trade policies. The markets were already showing signs of weakness ever since DeepSeek shook investor confidence with its supposed low-cost LLM that allegedly didn’t require NVIDIA GPUs (which, of course, turned out to be false). That was the spark, but deeper fears are at play, some are worried that 1) our economic expansion has peaked, and 2) the so-called American empire may be entering decline.

And let’s talk about China. If you still think China is just producing cheap knockoffs of Western innovation, you’re way behind. Take a few minutes on YouTube to check out some of China’s new luxury car brands, they’re not just catching up; they’re starting to impress.

But does that mean American industry is in trouble? Not necessarily.

Yes, China is advancing, but they’re also facing major headwinds: a collapsing housing market, aging demographics, rising debt levels, slowing economic growth, and rampant youth unemployment. Those aren’t the hallmarks of a country ready to take over the world, they’re signs of deep structural issues.

Now, Trump has long been critical of China. His current play seems to be about “leveling the playing field,” using tariffs to pressure countries he believes are exploiting the U.S. economically. You could argue that these tariffs are more of a bargaining chip, his way of pulling other nations into negotiations. We all know how much he thrives on deal-making.

But does this mean American industry is doomed? Or is it part of a broader, more aggressive economic strategy?

Trump’s approach appears to be centered around reviving domestic manufacturing and energy independence. His plan includes tax cuts, reduced government spending (cue the return of the deficit hawks), deregulation, expanded domestic drilling, and tariffs designed to bring jobs back to the U.S. Will it work? Hard to say.

What is clear is that this strategy marks a sharp pivot away from globalization. It’s protectionist. And that shift, combined with the unpredictability of Trump’s methods is what’s really shaking investors. We’re not just seeing a market correction; we’re witnessing a potential reset of the global economic order. And uncertainty like that spooks the market.

If you believe in Trump’s vision, if you think his plan will bolster U.S. industry, then maybe this is the perfect time to buy the dip. Companies like Apple and NVIDIA have already pledged to invest billions domestically and shift some manufacturing back to the U.S., and the Fed might respond to the volatility with rate cuts, injecting liquidity back into the system.

But if you think this strategy won’t work, if you believe the U.S. is heading toward a deeper crisis while the rest of the world struggles through a downturn, then maybe it’s time to hedge. Think gold, Bitcoin… and yes, maybe even Chinese equities.

As for what I’m doing? I’ll let you draw your own conclusions.